Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78f1…3c1c crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+3%) realized +$171 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%27W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$41
14 days+$41
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$140
other 17% +$197
sports 6% +$41
world 6% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -9.6% -18.2% 67% 67% -4.3%
≤30d 8 -8.6% -17.3% 62% 62% -0.3%
≤90d 60 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 43% -7.7%
all 60 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 43% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 43% -7.7%
10% -31.9% 38% -16.5%
15% -38.5% 32% -24.6%
20% -44.5% 27% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$51 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses27 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage88d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 76¢ $255 $230 −$26 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $165 +$35 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $130 +$70 +53%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 +$64 +56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 +$18 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $29 −$28 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $79 +$70 +89%
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? Apr 20 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1PM ET Apr 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11AM ET Apr 03 $42 +$27 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4PM ET Apr 03 $39 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$8 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 02 $120 +$33 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 02 $123 −$14 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 02 $666 $0 +0%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $40 +$38 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 29 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4PM ET Mar 28 $48 +$30 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 27 $28 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11AM ET Mar 27 $250 +$480 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 27 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 27 $60 +$42 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Suriname qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $152 +$67 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 26 $60 +$26 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 26 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 26 $97 +$123 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 26 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 26 $170 +$60 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 25 $9 +$11 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 25 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 25 $123 +$36 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $256 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $49 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $75 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $62 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 6d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 21d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 21d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 62d
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.50 · official $229.50 (match) · 506 history records