Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78f1…f8f9 crypto 1458 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 179d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,445 (-5%) realized −$3,445 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%705W / 753L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$1,261
14 days−$2,090
30 days−$1,792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,869
sports 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 256 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 45% -16.9%
≤90d 701 -5.9% -14.9% 48% 47% -13.7%
all 1458 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 48% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 48% -14.7%
10% -22.0% 48% -22.9%
15% -29.5% 48% -30.3%
20% -36.4% 48% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$45 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,445
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses705 / 753
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1458 / 1458
History coverage179d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1458 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 27 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 27 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$19 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$28 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$62 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$70 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$44 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$48 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $72 +$55 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $17 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $46 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $20 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $23 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $23 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $37 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $41 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $42 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $31 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records