Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78f8…9801 other 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$126 (-24%) realized −$115 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$80
30 days−$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$35
other 47% −$96
crypto 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 9 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -41.8%
≤90d 9 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -41.8%
all 9 -41.6% -47.1% 33% 33% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 33% -41.8%
10% -52.2% 33% -47.4%
15% -56.8% 33% -52.5%
20% -61.0% 11% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage11d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $43 +$14 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $38 $14 −$24 (-62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 06 $67 −$66 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 06 $47 +$20 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $64 −$17 -26%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $38 +$26 +67%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $26 +$11 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 31 $40 −$39 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.71 · official $165.80 (match) · 40 history records