Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
78 0x78f9…c92d sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$101 (+27%) realized +$1 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$171
other 40% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +63.5% +47.9% 100% 100% +48.4%
≤30d 2 +63.5% +47.9% 100% 100% +48.4%
≤90d 2 +63.5% +47.9% 100% 100% +48.4%
all 2 +63.5% +47.9% 100% 100% +48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.9% 100% +48.4%
10% +33.8% 100% +34.2%
15% +20.8% 100% +21.2%
20% +9.0% 100% +9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Over 12¢ 24¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 AND Will Jun 17 $121 +$71 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$104 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.00 · official $200.00 (match) · 11 history records