Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78fa…f880 other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$6
other 33% +$1
politics 8% −$6
crypto 4% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -2.8% -12.1% 20% 0% -11.0%
all 44 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 5% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -11.1%
10% -20.1% 5% -19.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -27.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage455d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $4 −$1 -18%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $34 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $38 −$5 -14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? May 28 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61–62°F on May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 20 $7 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 19 $1 $0 +27%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $1 $0 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 18 $6 −$1 -8%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening May 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $14 $0 -1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 09 $14 $0 -2%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 07 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $35 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $35 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $36 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $36 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 20h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $9 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $23 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $32 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $4 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $3 30d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 31d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 31d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records