Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78fb…256c weather 487 markets active 3d ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$58 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%211W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% +$179
sports 22% −$86
crypto 17% −$81
other 4% −$44
politics 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.8% -4.3% 33% 33% -4.8%
≤30d 63 -4.2% -13.3% 49% 38% -13.1%
≤90d 482 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 36% -9.8%
all 482 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 36% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 36% -9.8%
10% -22.3% 30% -18.5%
15% -29.8% 24% -26.3%
20% -36.7% 17% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses211 / 271
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)482 / 487
History coverage76d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 482 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? No 82¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Amy Klobuchar be the next Senate Majority Leader? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? No 69¢ 2¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $5 +$8 +154%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $5 −$1 -18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$7 +141%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 +$7 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$2 -39%
Will Seoul have between 110-120mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +33%
Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $2 +$3 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 30? May 30 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 -2%
Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May? May 29 $11 −$10 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $3 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 27 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $5 −$5 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $5 −$1 -28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $10 +$9 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $5 +$3 +55%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 29? May 26 $10 −$1 -10%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $5 +$2 +37%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 25 $4 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 +$4 +35%
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in May? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $3 $0 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $5 +$4 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 23? May 23 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? BUY No 82¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June SELL Yes 11¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 51¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 18¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? SELL No 41¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June SELL Yes 9¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY No 47¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? BUY No 65¢ $15 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? SELL No 57¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? SELL No 6¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? SELL No 82¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 9? BUY No 65¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? BUY No 73¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 35¢ $5 8d
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? BUY No 84¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? SELL No 60¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? SELL No 69¢ $8 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 45¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? BUY No 61¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? SELL No 2¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 32¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? SELL No 54¢ $4 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 6? BUY No 63¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? SELL No 49¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? BUY No 59¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? SELL No 69¢ $6 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.04 · official $306.04 (match) · 1133 history records