Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78fe…d6d9 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day58.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$17
other 4% +$3
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.2% +1.5% 27% 27% -15.2%
≤30d 15 +12.2% +1.5% 27% 27% -15.2%
≤90d 15 +12.2% +1.5% 27% 27% -15.2%
all 15 +12.2% +1.5% 27% 27% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 27% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 27% -23.3%
15% -17.1% 27% -30.7%
20% -25.2% 27% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$11 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)15 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day58.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Morocco? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$6 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$56 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $37 +$41 +110%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $2 +$4 +172%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$8 +786%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $81 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.60 · official $11.60 (match) · 59 history records