Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7903…57f6
weather · 455 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$56 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses304 / 129
Open positions22
Markets (closed)433 / 455
History coverage48d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 22 History 433 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$67
14 days−$41
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 2? No 71¢ 100¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? No 75¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 69¢ 66¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? No 63¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? No 66¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 4? No 76¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 30? No 72¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? No 72¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 69¢ 93¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 4? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 83¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? No 79¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? No 91¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? No 67¢ 70¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? No 84¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 85¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? No 71¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 79¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? No 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? No 75¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? No 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? No 82¢ 74¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? No 78¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 69¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $6 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 67¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $5 38h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 67¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 69% -20.7%
≤30d 237 +0.4% -9.2% 72% 70% -9.8%
≤90d 433 -1.3% -10.7% 70% 69% -11.6%
all 433 -1.3% -10.7% 70% 69% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 69% -11.6%
10% -19.3% 60% -20.0%
15% -27.1% 42% -27.8%
20% -34.2% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.94 · official $173.71 (match) · 1178 history records