Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:59:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7903…685b other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$185
other 22% −$277
crypto 10% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 34% 34% -13.8%
≤30d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 34% 34% -13.8%
≤90d 65 -14.0% -22.2% 34% 34% -13.8%
all 65 -14.0% -22.2% 34% 34% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 34% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 31% -22.0%
15% -36.4% 25% -29.6%
20% -42.6% 25% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$20 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 57
History coverage6d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $145 −$142 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $38 +$62 +165%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $163 +$37 +23%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $119 +$81 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $28 +$30 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $27 +$30 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$45 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $78 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$23 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$15 -28%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 +$83 +474%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $192 +$108 +56%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $214 +$64 +30%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $129 +$22 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $103 −$80 -77%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $109 +$23 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $126 −$126 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $87 +$23 +26%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $53 +$47 +90%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $11 +$21 +195%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $8 +$22 +290%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $11 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $11 −$5 -49%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $43 2h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $163 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $23 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 207 history records