Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x790b…7bc8 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+5%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate77%23W / 7L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$33
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +9.7% -0.8% 77% 63% -4.2%
≤30d 30 +9.7% -0.8% 77% 63% -4.2%
≤90d 30 +9.7% -0.8% 77% 63% -4.2%
all 30 +9.7% -0.8% 77% 63% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.8% 63% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 53% -13.4%
15% -18.9% 37% -21.8%
20% -26.9% 17% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$16 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses23 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +48%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Jun 26 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$17 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$31 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 4h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records