Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x790c…033c politics 390 markets active 2h ago coverage 911d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,864 (-2%) realized −$2,871 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate65%246W / 133L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$388now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$25
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 64% −$754
other 15% −$3,638
world 12% +$731
sports 4% +$966
tech 3% −$869
weather 0% −$8
crypto 0% −$32
culture 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.1% -2.2% 100% 0% -2.2%
≤30d 4 +14.1% +3.2% 100% 50% -3.7%
≤90d 5 +13.7% +2.9% 100% 60% -1.9%
all 379 -11.9% -20.3% 65% 31% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 31% -11.8%
10% -27.9% 20% -20.2%
15% -34.9% 10% -27.9%
20% -41.3% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$197 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

911d coverage
Net worth$388
Realized−$2,871
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses246 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)379 / 390
History coverage911d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 79¢ 91¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections? Yes 58¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Yes 86¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $290 +$7 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 26 $283 +$35 +12%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 22 $120 +$23 +20%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 22 $20 +$9 +43%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Bangladesh Nationalist Party win the most seats in the Bangladesh Feb 15 $228 +$24 +11%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 03 $200 +$29 +14%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +24%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 05 $190 −$141 -74%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 05 $100 −$90 -90%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 20 $400 −$306 -77%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Nov 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,101 +$62 +6%
Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025? Oct 31 $10 $0 +3%
Mark Carney out as leader of Liberals in 2025? Oct 31 $10 +$1 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 31 $15 +$7 +44%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Oct 31 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Oct 31 $50 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Oct 31 $60 +$5 +8%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 31 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 31 $221 $0 +0%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 28 $200 −$59 -30%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Oct 28 $279 −$71 -25%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $150 +$16 +10%
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 04 $200 +$32 +16%
Will Ukraine recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by October 31? Oct 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture Stepanivka by September 30? Oct 01 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Gavin Newsom launch a token in September? Oct 01 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30? Oct 01 $371 +$58 +16%
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Sep 29 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Sep 29 $172 −$86 -50%
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election Sep 27 $40 −$28 -71%
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election? Sep 26 $109 +$51 +47%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Sep 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30? Sep 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Sep 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Sep 21 $60 +$20 +33%
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway? Sep 16 $39 +$11 +28%
Will Ap win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electio Sep 16 $49 +$13 +26%
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? Sep 09 $40 +$3 +9%
Will PNP (People’s National Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jama Sep 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) win the most seats in the 2025 Jamaica Sep 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31? Sep 01 $69 +$91 +131%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31? Sep 01 $75 +$95 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Al BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $102 1h
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 6d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 6d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $20 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $100 6d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 95¢ $100 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 6d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $30 18d
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam BUY Yes 96¢ $50 18d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $297 20d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 97¢ $290 21d
Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after BUY Yes 58¢ $10 33d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Repre BUY Yes 62¢ $10 33d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 33d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 40¢ $10 33d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 88¢ $318 33d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 89¢ $73 95d
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 97d
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 98d
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 98d
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 98d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa SELL Yes 99¢ $143 98d
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? BUY Yes 65¢ $29 98d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 80¢ $10 100d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY Yes 71¢ $100 107d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa BUY Yes 79¢ $20 112d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa BUY Yes 84¢ $100 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $388.37 · official $388.37 (match) · 1478 history records