Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x790e…0be2 other 53 markets active 20h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$212 (-39%) realized −$16 · open −$196
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$7
14 days+$26
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$20
world 37% −$194
politics 15% −$11
crypto 4% −$23
sports 3% −$4
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -15.8% -23.8% 47% 35% -13.8%
≤30d 23 +22.7% +11.0% 52% 43% +15.4%
≤90d 44 -1.7% -11.1% 34% 30% -14.8%
all 44 -1.7% -11.1% 34% 30% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 30% -14.8%
10% -19.6% 23% -22.9%
15% -27.3% 18% -30.4%
20% -34.5% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage58d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $53 $3 −$50 (-95%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $70 $1 −$69 (-98%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 45¢ $31 $0 −$30 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 28¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 31¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -61%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -57%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $29 −$22 -76%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 12 $30 +$35 +119%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$3 -48%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $56 +$38 +67%
Will Declan Rice record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Champion Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 03 $4 +$31 +780%
Will Martín Zubimendi record the most yellow cards in 2025-26 UEFA Cha May 30 $4 +$3 +65%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Vedat Muriqi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga season May 17 $8 −$5 -61%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 +$2 +155%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$2 -55%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 +$1 +66%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -40%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 −$5 -37%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n May 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Italy win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 14 $1 +$2 +166%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Exact Score: Girona FC 1 - 1 RCD Mallorca? May 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 20h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $2 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No $1 20h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 20h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes $2 20h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $14 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $14 32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $14 32h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $13 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 33h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes $8 33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 38h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $0 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $7 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 42h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $3 42h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.24 · official $10.24 (match) · 262 history records