Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x790f…c5d0 crypto 582 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$113 (-3%) realized −$172 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%364W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$11
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$199
other 2% −$10
sports 2% −$54
world 1% +$67
finance 0% −$20
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.9% -1.5% 80% 60% +1.0%
≤30d 6 -9.3% -17.9% 67% 50% -8.4%
≤90d 444 -7.0% -15.9% 62% 51% -14.3%
all 578 -4.6% -13.7% 63% 54% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 54% -15.3%
10% -21.9% 43% -23.4%
15% -29.5% 31% -30.8%
20% -36.4% 22% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$172
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses364 / 214
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)578 / 582
History coverage244d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 5¢ 44¢ $10 $91 +$81 (+807%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 94¢ 37¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes 20¢ 7¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 47¢ 6¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $37 +$4 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 11 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 11 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 11 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 07 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 07 $22 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 06 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 06 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 06 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 06 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 05 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 04 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 04 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 04 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 02 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 02 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 02 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 02 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 91¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 38d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $13 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $29 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 42d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.36 · official $99.13 (match) · 1073 history records