Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x7912…59fb other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$118 (-1%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10
culture 22% +$2
sports 16% −$125
politics 10% +$13
crypto 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 9% -10.5%
all 24 -7.0% -15.8% 54% 12% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 12% -10.5%
10% -23.9% 12% -19.0%
15% -31.2% 12% -26.9%
20% -38.0% 12% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$852) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage103d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli May 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 16 $872 +$2 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 15 $852 +$2 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 08 $333 +$11 +3%
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Kristiansund BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $5 +$5 +113%
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $4 +$4 +117%
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League Apr 01 $797 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 01 $857 −$11 -1%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $773 +$2 +0%
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 01 $759 +$1 +0%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5 Mar 26 $109 −$109 -100%
Will "Lemon Pound Cake - Afroman" be the Billboard #1 song for the wee Mar 25 $1,569 +$1 +0%
Will March 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Mar 25 $757 −$2 -0%
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace? Mar 25 $855 +$1 +0%
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard #1 song for Mar 24 $832 +$1 +0%
Will Samira Sagr win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 24 $872 −$3 -0%
Will Jason Cherry win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Mar 24 $813 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 12PM ET Mar 06 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1PM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 58m
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $48 60d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? SELL No 100¢ $826 60d
Will Crystal Palace finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? BUY No 99¢ $872 60d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $854 60d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $852 60d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL No 32¢ $344 67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY No 31¢ $333 67d
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 69d
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 69d
Kristiansund BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $12 71d
Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 72d
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 73d
Queens Park Rangers FC vs. Watford FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 73d
Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $4 73d
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League SELL No 100¢ $23 74d
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League SELL No 100¢ $775 74d
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League BUY No 100¢ $797 74d
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 96¢ $496 74d
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? SELL No 98¢ $349 74d
Will Sweden be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 98¢ $857 74d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $772 74d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 99¢ $2 74d
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $773 74d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $759 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records