Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:25:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7912…b216 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+1%) realized +$23 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$5
crypto 31% +$12
politics 23% +$5
finance 8% +$8
tech 3% +$1
sports 2% −$5
economics 2% −$2
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.8% -1.6% 100% 0% -1.6%
≤30d 9 +8.2% -2.1% 56% 33% -3.6%
≤90d 26 -0.6% -10.0% 69% 27% -7.2%
all 44 -0.8% -10.2% 66% 25% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 25% -7.4%
10% -18.8% 9% -16.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -24.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions28
Markets (closed)44 / 72
History coverage130d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 89¢ 96¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 52¢ 19¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 86¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 94¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama Something $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? No 97¢ 96¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $19 +$2 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $20 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $12 +$4 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 04 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $13 +$5 +39%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $16 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $30 +$3 +11%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $56 +$4 +7%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $13 +$1 +9%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 01 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 01 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 01 $49 −$1 -3%
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 01 $28 +$7 +26%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 31 $15 +$2 +10%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Katana FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 20 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Mar 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Mar 01 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 01 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $32 +$5 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 01 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Feb 24 $8 $0 +5%
North Korea missile launch by February 28? Feb 17 $3 $0 +13%
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Feb 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Player 152 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 16 $6 $0 +4%
Will Mamdani attend the Rental Ripoff hearing on February 26? Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 89¢ $9 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 97¢ $28 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 97¢ $28 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $0 8d
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 8d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.60 · official $58.98 · 309 history records