Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:33:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x7914…db49 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$3
crypto 18% −$9
sports 18% +$36
other 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
all 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage20d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 29 $447 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? Jun 29 $453 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $325 −$4 -1%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $320 $0 +0%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $429 +$36 +8%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 09 $439 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $448 30m
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $447 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? SELL No 95¢ $453 1h
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $453 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $116 13d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $205 13d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $325 13d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $320 13d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $320 13d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY China PR 92¢ $429 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $421 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $439 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records