Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
79 0x7915…7777 politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$1
politics 24% $0
other 23% +$1
tech 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 41 +0.2% -9.4% 44% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.83 per $1 lost it wins $1.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage294d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $11 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $41 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 15 $7 $0 -2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 05 $6 +$1 +20%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 12h
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $42 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $41 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $22 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $11 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $12 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $7 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $12 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $40 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $40 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 31¢ $2 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $2 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $40 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $27 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $13 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $41 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records