Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x7916…cb13 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$106 (+14%) realized +$81 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate57%21W / 16L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +88.7% +70.7% 59% 52% -5.8%
≤30d 37 +73.8% +57.2% 57% 51% -9.5%
≤90d 37 +73.8% +57.2% 57% 51% -9.5%
all 37 +73.8% +57.2% 57% 51% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.2% 51% -9.5%
10% +42.2% 43% -18.1%
15% +28.5% 38% -26.0%
20% +15.9% 30% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +128% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses21 / 16
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage21d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Over 17¢ 55¢ $13 $43 +$30 (+221%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks New York Liberty 86¢ 68¢ $30 $23 −$6 (-22%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Over 20¢ 26¢ $9 $11 +$3 (+32%)
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 Over 40¢ 34¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) Jun 22 $8 +$3 +32%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $34 +$6 +18%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $63 −$26 -42%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $34 +$39 +115%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $72 −$71 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $95 +$4 +4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $8 +$13 +167%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $7 +$7 +97%
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $4 +$10 +226%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $20 +$19 +93%
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $26 −$25 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $21 −$1 -3%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $50 +$25 +50%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$17 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $28 +$92 +325%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-8.5) Jun 20 $4 +$1 +13%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 20 $7 +$2 +27%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 20 $6 $0 -4%
Petra Marcinko vs. Simona Waltert: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$104 +9612%
Noskova vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 −$1 -14%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Darya Astakhova Jun 05 $3 +$2 +46%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $4 +$1 +14%
Arnaldi vs. Cobolli: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $3 −$1 -16%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-5.5) Jun 04 $7 −$5 -67%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Cobolli: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 03 $3 +$6 +236%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 02 $9 −$9 -98%
Madison Keys vs. Diana Shnaider: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $3 +$4 +146%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Zachary Svajda: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $25 −$25 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: New York Liberty (-7.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 75¢ $8 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $30 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Washington Mystics 35¢ $13 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 84¢ $34 2h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 80¢ $50 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 20¢ $9 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 17¢ $14 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 40¢ $7 3h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 39¢ $72 6h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 33¢ $30 6h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 37¢ $8 7h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 65¢ $65 7h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 46¢ $34 7h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 78¢ $11 8h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 70¢ $10 8h
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 81¢ $27 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 65¢ $26 13h
Fritz vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 30¢ $4 13h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Damir Dzumhur 71¢ $20 13h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Damir Dzumhur 72¢ $21 13h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 51¢ $20 14h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 73¢ $5 24h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 66¢ $50 26h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $8 27h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $7 27h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 32¢ $13 27h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 36¢ $0 28h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays $2 28h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 28h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 29¢ $0 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.25 · official $83.26 (match) · 76 history records