Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x7919…4b5f other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$252 (+18%) realized +$255 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$344
7 days+$234
14 days+$238
30 days+$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$245
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 60% 60% +21.1%
≤30d 8 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% +8.6%
≤90d 8 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% +8.6%
all 8 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 50% +8.6%
10% -31.0% 38% -1.8%
15% -37.7% 38% -11.3%
20% -43.8% 38% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$78 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$255
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage9d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $92 +$123 +134%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $388 +$203 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $294 +$207 +70%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 64¢ $119 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $92 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $388 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.68 · official $196.70 (match) · 15 history records