Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

79 0x791a…271b sports 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$21 (-21%) realized −$21 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%3W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day4.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-28.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-20.8%	-28.3%	43%	43%	-29.0%
≤30d	7	-20.8%	-28.3%	43%	43%	-29.0%
≤90d	7	-20.8%	-28.3%	43%	43%	-29.0%
all	7	-20.8%	-28.3%	43%	43%	-29.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.3%	43%	-29.0%
10%	-35.2%	43%	-35.8%
15%	-41.4%	43%	-42.0%
20%	-47.2%	43%	-47.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 83% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$21

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses3 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day4.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$20	+$25	+123%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	Jun 14	$10	+$7	+67%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 13	$10	+$7	+64%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner	Jun 12	$25	−$25	-99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	Jun 12	$15	−$15	-98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL T1	100¢	$45	4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	44¢	$20	4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1	40¢	$10	4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$17	4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	59¢	$10	4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	SELL Bilibili Gaming	100¢	$17	5d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY Bilibili Gaming	60¢	$10	5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner	BUY T1	51¢	$25	6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	50¢	$15	6d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY T1	35¢	$10	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records