Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x791d…f82f crypto 446 markets active 1h ago coverage 422d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$68 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%204W / 235L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$124
sports 22% +$103
crypto 22% −$56
tech 17% −$13
politics 6% −$43
finance 4% −$48
world 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 17% -10.6%
≤30d 11 -19.8% -27.5% 55% 18% -25.1%
≤90d 123 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 42% -18.6%
all 439 -4.5% -13.6% 46% 36% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -8.5%
10% -21.9% 26% -17.3%
15% -29.4% 17% -25.3%
20% -36.3% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

422d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses204 / 235
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)439 / 446
History coverage422d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will BNB reach $800 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 1? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 1? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 1? Jun 29 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 29 $20 $0 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $5 −$4 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $15 −$1 -6%
Citrini Analyst #3 returns to the Middle East in April? May 01 $209 +$15 +7%
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,250 (HIGH) by April 30? Apr 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Rolex Index hit $11,950 (LOW) by April 30? Apr 22 $4 −$1 -14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Apr 18 $11 −$1 -6%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $43 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in August 2026 (ET)? Apr 18 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 -27%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +35%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $2 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,100 (LOW) by April 30? Apr 18 $25 −$10 -38%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Apr 18 $15 +$17 +116%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 18 $65 −$3 -5%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 15 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 15 $3 +$1 +36%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 11 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 11 $3 +$1 +35%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 11 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on July 1? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 1? SELL No 87¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on July 1? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 8¢ $19 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $2 3d
Will BNB reach $800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 22¢ $11 4d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on July 1? BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? BUY No 98¢ $20 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $35 9d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 10d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $5 11d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 65¢ $5 11d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 41¢ $31 16d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 39¢ $4 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 29¢ $25 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.82 · official $101.82 (match) · 1547 history records