Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x791e…9bda sports 530 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,103 (-0%) realized −$1,229 · open +$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%234W / 294L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,106per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$7,323est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 101d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$4,246
other 5% −$7,471
world 0% −$978
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 41% -23.3%
≤30d 117 +10.6% +0.0% 44% 44% -1.5%
≤90d 482 +4.8% -5.2% 45% 45% -8.1%
all 528 +1.6% -8.0% 44% 44% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 44% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 44% -18.8%
15% -24.9% 44% -26.6%
20% -32.2% 42% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$1,320) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,204 vs −$973 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$3,485
Realized−$1,229
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses234 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$7,323
Open positions2
Markets (closed)528 / 530
History coverage101d
Avg bet$1,106
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1,979 $2,120 +$141 (+7%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $1,380 $1,365 −$15 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 287 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,075 −$1,060 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $816 +$1,684 +206%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $545 +$901 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,015 +$1,026 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $509 −$500 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $919 −$900 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,010 +$1,990 +197%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,014 +$1,156 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,016 −$1,002 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $754 −$740 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,020 +$1,760 +172%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1,002 −$1,001 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $991 −$986 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $465 −$465 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $501 −$494 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $463 −$456 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1,312 −$1,290 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,006 +$1,194 +119%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,642 +$1,358 +83%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $504 +$696 +138%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $517 −$507 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,031 −$1,020 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $383 −$375 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $2,737 −$2,700 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $3,941 −$3,900 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,333 +$667 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $338 −$330 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,035 +$965 +93%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,055 −$1,040 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $505 +$995 +197%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,320 +$1,680 +127%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $321 +$579 +180%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $774 +$1,226 +158%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $754 −$740 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $984 +$1,216 +124%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,006 −$990 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $308 +$4,692 +1521%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $5,275 +$4,725 +90%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $1,432 +$1,568 +109%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,372 −$74 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,916 +$1,584 +83%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $10,128 +$8,372 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $2,614 +$2,386 +91%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $747 −$730 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $790 −$41 -5%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,993 +$1,563 +78%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 07 $1,035 +$965 +93%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $483 −$473 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $1,402 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,075 5h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $816 8h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $545 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $1,015 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $509 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 59¢ $1,180 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $919 31h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $1,010 34h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $1,014 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,007 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1,016 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $754 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $1,020 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $14 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $28 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $3 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $6 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $2 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $4 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $106 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $16 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $154 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $562 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $17 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $8 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $2 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $80 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,484.85 · official $3,484.86 (match) · 1350 history records