Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7921…d3f4 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 23% −$1
culture 21% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 11% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 7% -9.7%
all 32 -2.9% -12.1% 53% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 6% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage486d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $27 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $35 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $7 $0 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 20 $4 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 15 $3 $0 -12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.6% and 4.7% on April 11? Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? Mar 04 $9 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $33 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $33 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $33 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $34 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $17 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $33 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.95 · official $32.95 (match) · 105 history records