Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7921…bbc3 crypto 713 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (304 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,699 (-12%) realized −$1,697 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%318W / 392L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day304.0pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$620
14 days−$1,991
30 days−$1,991
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$769
crypto 31% −$378
other 13% −$87
world 5% −$759
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (304 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 603 -6.8% -15.6% 43% 40% -15.8%
≤30d 710 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 41% -21.9%
≤90d 710 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 41% -21.9%
all 710 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 41% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover304.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 41% -21.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 37% -29.3%
15% -31.9% 32% -36.2%
20% -38.6% 29% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$1,697
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses318 / 392
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions3
Markets (closed)710 / 713
History coverage10d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day304.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 87¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 40¢ 39¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 305 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $31 −$5 -18%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $37 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$2 -5%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 −$7 -22%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $30 −$13 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 28 $6 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$8 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $5 +$8 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$4 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$7 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 40¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $50 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa 2¢ $2 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance SELL South Africa 3¢ $0 13h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $20 13h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 14h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 14h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 17¢ $49 14h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 72¢ $24 14h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $17 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 14h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.05 · official $128.05 (match) · 3230 history records