Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x7927…10fa crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,051 (-17%) realized −$3,051 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%58W / 80L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$681
7 days+$459
14 days+$459
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$543
sports 29% −$2,468
other 6% +$680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -45.5% -50.7% 40% 20% +23.1%
≤30d 17 -35.6% -41.8% 35% 29% -1.2%
≤90d 39 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 28% -23.7%
all 138 -14.9% -23.0% 42% 39% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 39% -21.5%
10% -30.3% 36% -29.0%
15% -37.1% 33% -35.9%
20% -43.2% 28% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$93 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,051
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses58 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage127d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $955 +$681 +71%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $99 −$97 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $94 +$1 +1%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants Jun 19 $96 −$95 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $173 −$170 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $151 −$150 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 09 $95 −$94 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 09 $101 +$82 +81%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 08 $15 −$15 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 08 $193 +$160 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Jun 07 $145 −$143 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San Jun 07 $195 +$153 +78%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $100 −$98 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $152 +$273 +180%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $201 −$196 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 14 $26 +$31 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 14 $26 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 14 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 14 $57 −$8 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 14 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 14 $26 +$59 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 13 $26 −$25 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 13 $63 −$53 -84%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $40 −$1 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Mar 31 $893 −$887 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 29 $202 −$199 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 29 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 29 $167 +$34 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 29 $81 −$80 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$103 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 29 $30 −$13 -44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padres Mar 28 $884 +$309 +35%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $1,168 −$1,168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 08 $40 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 08 $200 −$197 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 08 $50 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 07 $80 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 07 $200 +$208 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 07 $30 +$27 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 07 $150 −$43 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 07 $40 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 07 $95 +$31 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,637 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $246 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 4h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 30¢ $99 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 42¢ $94 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $72 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 45¢ $21 4d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants BUY No 57¢ $96 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $173 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 32¢ $20 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 37¢ $31 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY No 47¢ $95 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S SELL No 99¢ $183 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S BUY No 54¢ $101 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $100 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY Yes 46¢ $15 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. SELL No 99¢ $183 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. SELL No 94¢ $71 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. SELL No 94¢ $98 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 52¢ $193 16d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San BUY No 56¢ $145 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. BUY No 42¢ $102 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 58¢ $101 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. San BUY No 55¢ $195 18d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 48¢ $100 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 89¢ $241 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 68¢ $183 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $49 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records