Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x792d…af4d other 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+2%) realized +$185 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate89%304W / 36L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$21
14 days+$47
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$94
sports 29% +$63
crypto 8% +$31
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 24% -8.3%
≤30d 124 +2.9% -6.9% 94% 22% -6.9%
≤90d 340 -0.4% -9.8% 89% 13% -7.9%
all 340 -0.4% -9.8% 89% 13% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 13% -7.9%
10% -18.5% 2% -16.7%
15% -26.3% 1% -24.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.27 per $1 lost it wins $4.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$185
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses304 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions48
Markets (closed)340 / 388
History coverage82d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-4%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+20%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? No 95¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$4 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $703 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 $0 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 +14%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1 $0 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Argentina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 $0 +11%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $300 +$4 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $395 +$12 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 93¢ $100 1h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $500 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $2 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 86¢ $2 38h
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1 38h
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 38h
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $500 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 75¢ $5 2d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 2d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $16 2d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $91 2d
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $5 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.83 · official $224.80 (match) · 934 history records