Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x792d…1bd0
sports · 119 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$77 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$71 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses39 / 76
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 119
History coverage55d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Over 89¢ 87¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Algeria 79¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) Sheffield Wednesday FC 35¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+186%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-18? No 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? No 82¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-18? No 54¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-22? No 80¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Under 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will CD Concepción win on 2026-04-18? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata vs. AA Estudiantes end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) Atlético Nacional 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Boston Red Sox 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-04-18? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Palermo FC vs. Cesena FC end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Athletics 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? No 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Northern Ireland 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-04-22? No 85¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19? No 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? No 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-25? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 09 $4 +$4 +114%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) Jun 08 $9 −$3 -34%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 08 $2 −$1 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $3 +$11 +355%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $1 +$6 +462%
América de Cali vs. Millonarios FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $7 $0 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $3 +$4 +138%
Oeiras 4: Whitney Osuigwe vs Ayana Akli Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Santos FC vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
New York Red Bulls vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Sheffield United FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $20 +$19 +97%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Apr 22 $4 +$16 +441%
Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $0 $0 +182%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $4 +$4 +97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $3 +$5 +172%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Apr 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Wuhan San Zhen FC (-2.5) Apr 20 $20 $0 -2%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Maximus Jones Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 20 $3 −$3 -100%
CA Talleres vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5 Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
CDP Junior FC vs. Llaneros FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
SE Palmeiras vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Apr 20 $3 +$4 +145%
Spread: CD Moquegua (-2.5) Apr 20 $8 $0 -2%
Spread: América de Cali (-2.5) Apr 20 $7 $0 -3%
CD Huachipato vs. Audax CS Italiano: O/U 4.5 Apr 20 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$61
other 22% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 23¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $7 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 53¢ $4 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $25 1h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 15¢ $1 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $6 3d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) SELL Seattle Storm 100¢ $8 3d
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 4d
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 74¢ $5 4d
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) SELL CDPJuniorFC 99¢ $7 4d
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 20¢ $2 4d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) BUY Seattle Storm 45¢ $4 4d
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) BUY Atlético Nacional 23¢ $2 4d
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) BUY CDPJuniorFC 79¢ $6 4d
Spread: Atlético Nacional (-2.5) BUY Atlético Nacional 23¢ $2 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Northern Ireland 25¢ $2 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Northern Ireland 25¢ $2 4d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Harriet Dart 100¢ $7 4d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Harriet Dart 17¢ $1 4d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 82¢ $6 48d
CF Montréal vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $7 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -3.0% -12.2% 27% 27% -10.5%
≤30d 15 -3.0% -12.2% 27% 27% -10.5%
≤90d 115 -13.0% -21.3% 34% 31% -17.6%
all 115 -13.0% -21.3% 34% 31% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 31% -17.6%
10% -28.9% 29% -25.4%
15% -35.7% 24% -32.6%
20% -42.0% 24% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.16 · official $13.63 (match) · 237 history records