Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x792d…1361 crypto 1383 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-3%) realized −$220 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate73%1011W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$18
14 days−$13
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$291
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -5.4% -14.4% 63% 61% -14.4%
≤30d 160 -2.9% -12.1% 71% 66% -14.3%
≤90d 1382 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 40% -13.4%
all 1382 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 40% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 14% -21.7%
15% -28.8% 4% -29.3%
20% -35.8% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1011 / 371
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1382 / 1383
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Up 85¢ 50¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.49 · official $3.49 (match) · 3500 history records