Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:54:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7931…b4e0
crypto · 562 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,042 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,274 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,274
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses266 / 388
Open positions1
Markets (closed)654 / 562
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day683.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 654 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$903
7 days−$1,274
14 days−$1,274
30 days−$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 51¢ 24¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? No 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? No 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 26? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 1? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 654 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 38% -24.6%
≤30d 654 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 38% -24.6%
≤90d 654 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 38% -24.6%
all 654 -19.0% -26.7% 41% 38% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover683.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 38% -24.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 35% -31.8%
15% -40.1% 31% -38.4%
20% -46.0% 28% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.75 (match) · 3500 history records