Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:48:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7932…bb2f crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$175 (-33%) realized −$174 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$30
crypto 29% −$26
world 16% −$53
sports 14% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -76.6% -78.8% 0% 0% -82.4%
≤30d 2 -76.6% -78.8% 0% 0% -82.4%
≤90d 12 -19.6% -27.2% 33% 25% -52.8%
all 12 -19.6% -27.2% 33% 25% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 25% -52.8%
10% -34.2% 17% -57.3%
15% -40.5% 8% -61.5%
20% -46.4% 8% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage80d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $52 −$27 -53%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 12? Apr 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $17 +$25 +145%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $20 −$11 -56%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $19 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.82 · official $155.82 (match) · 25 history records