Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7932…453f other 87 markets active 7h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$104 (-24%) realized −$107 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$8
world 32% −$109
crypto 8% −$3
sports 4% +$3
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 75% 56% -7.9%
≤30d 20 -9.4% -18.0% 75% 55% -10.5%
≤90d 43 -11.5% -20.0% 77% 40% -7.1%
all 49 -17.5% -25.4% 69% 37% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 37% -42.7%
10% -32.5% 18% -48.2%
15% -39.0% 8% -53.2%
20% -45.0% 2% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions38
Markets (closed)49 / 87
History coverage112d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 55¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 57¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+66%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 89¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matthew McConaughey attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 02 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 09 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 09 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 07 $2 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 07 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? May 07 $1 $0 +15%
Will Balendra “Balen” Shah be the next Prime Minister of Nepal? May 07 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? May 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? May 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? May 07 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs ENCE (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 05 $1 +$1 +138%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 5? Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 25 $100 −$100 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 25? Feb 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $1 7h
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $1 7h
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 98¢ $1 7h
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? BUY No 98¢ $2 7h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 33h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 33h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 33h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 33h
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will Matthew McConaughey attend UFC Freedom 250? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 2d
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.60 · official $143.60 (match) · 131 history records