Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7936…9ecf politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
politics 35% −$5
sports 10% −$25
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -3.9% -13.1% 6% 6% -9.8%
all 118 -4.8% -13.8% 9% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 8% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 5% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×6.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage107d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Bucks vs. Trail Blazers Bucks 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Suns vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 29¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Nets vs. Hawks Nets 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Magic Magic 87¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Pistons Raptors 41¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Nets vs. Warriors Nets 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Thunder Celtics 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mavericks 47¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Knicks Knicks 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 24 $64 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $61 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $227 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $155 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $75 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $81 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $300 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $398 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $247 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $163 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $78 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 36h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 14d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $64 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 30d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $80 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 33d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 38d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $84 38d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $84 38d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 38d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 38d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $61 39d
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $61 39d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $76 39d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $76 40d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $73 40d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $73 40d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 40d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 40d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 41d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 41d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 41d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 41d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $88 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.99 · official $11.99 (match) · 330 history records