Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x793e…43bf other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (1045 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized +$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%10W / 54L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$582per market
Trades / day1044.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$53
world 28% +$41
politics 14% +$16
tech 7% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1045 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 5% -9.2%
≤30d 64 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 5% -9.2%
≤90d 64 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 5% -9.2%
all 64 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1044.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 5% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 2% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×46.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.62 per $1 lost it wins $9.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses10 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)64 / 71
History coverage3d
Avg bet$582
Trades / day1044.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $269 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $911 +$20 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $19 +$20 +108%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $375 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $679 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $762 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1,903 +$20 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $447 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $163 +$21 +13%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $96 +$21 +21%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1,720 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,867 −$6 -0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,153 +$19 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $3,240 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $245 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $1,379 $0 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 13 $2,164 −$1 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $577 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 13 $319 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $20 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $20 11m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $19 16m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 97¢ $19 16m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $19 16m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 97¢ $59 16m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 24m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 24m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $8 30m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $8 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 31m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 32m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $19 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 32m
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $16 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $30 32m
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.92 · official $149.92 (match) · 3500 history records