Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
79 0x7940…47e7 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$881 (+6%) realized +$698 · open +$183
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%33W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$141
14 days+$378
30 days+$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$573
other 8% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 33% -8.4%
≤30d 61 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 39% -7.1%
≤90d 61 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 39% -7.1%
all 61 +7.2% -3.0% 54% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 39% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 33% -16.0%
15% -20.8% 28% -24.1%
20% -28.5% 25% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +31% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$45 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,047
Realized+$698
Unrealized+$183
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses33 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions11
Markets (closed)61 / 72
History coverage10d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 84¢ $353 $558 +$206 (+58%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Iraq 52¢ 50¢ $211 $205 −$6 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 43¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 56¢ $28 $56 +$28 (+98%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 77¢ 82¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 18¢ $36 $26 −$10 (-27%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 85¢ 56¢ $30 $20 −$11 (-35%)
Will the game go to extra innings?: Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Yes 58¢ 44¢ $18 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 92¢ 50¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-45%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 92¢ 50¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-46%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 74¢ 84¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $145 +$126 +87%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 18 $217 −$72 -33%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $356 +$108 +30%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 18 $68 −$67 -98%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti Jun 18 $338 −$12 -4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $90 −$7 -8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $143 +$55 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$69 +68%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$2 +18%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $521 +$3 +1%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $503 −$3 -0%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $721 −$48 -7%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Set Handicap: Gao (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$3 +10%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $508 −$222 -44%
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $17 +$3 +20%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 15 $79 −$1 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $63 −$61 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $932 +$26 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Simakin vs. Vasami: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $131 −$2 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $846 −$545 -64%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $105 −$2 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $251 +$11 +4%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $11 +$9 +83%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $156 +$84 +54%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 15 $589 +$4 +1%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $1,344 −$4 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $608 +$11 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $197 −$9 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $548 +$11 +2%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $150 −$3 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $178 +$149 +84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $110 −$1 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $104 +$114 +109%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $225 −$10 -5%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $1,131 +$101 +9%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $99 +$84 +85%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $160 +$75 +47%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $80 +$21 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $306 +$251 +82%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Jun 11 $17 +$8 +50%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Mar Jun 11 $0 $0 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $86 54m
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 54¢ $270 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 92¢ $17 15h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $17 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $465 19h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson BUY Talia Gibson 38¢ $68 20h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $67 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $95 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $5 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $32 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $5 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $5 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $30 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $38 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $4 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $38 24h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti SELL Cash/Tracy 43¢ $6 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 17¢ $83 26h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $90 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 80¢ $198 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 59¢ $171 26h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 44¢ $318 28h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Arribage/Olivetti BUY Cash/Tracy 42¢ $19 29h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL No 44¢ $524 46h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 75¢ $0 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 74¢ $5 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 42¢ $210 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $311 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: Ghana 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,046.73 · official $1,046.77 (match) · 414 history records