Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7941…c675 sports 528 markets active 2h ago coverage 864d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,630 (-4%) realized −$1,600 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%324W / 203L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$278
14 days+$412
30 days−$834
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$712
other 17% −$1,182
politics 3% −$1,332
crypto 0% +$32
world 0% +$60
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +46.8% +32.8% 100% 100% +31.0%
≤30d 26 -2.1% -11.4% 62% 62% -34.4%
≤90d 36 -2.6% -11.9% 67% 64% -30.4%
all 527 -4.9% -14.0% 61% 54% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 54% -13.2%
10% -22.2% 38% -21.5%
15% -29.7% 26% -29.1%
20% -36.6% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$61 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

864d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$1,600
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses324 / 203
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)527 / 528
History coverage864d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 527 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 42¢ $73 $42 −$30 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $76 +$24 +32%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $80 +$20 +24%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $55 +$45 +83%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $73 +$27 +38%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $69 +$31 +46%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $577 −$570 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $617 +$127 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $597 −$590 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$83 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $48 +$24 +51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 −$37 -98%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Avalanche vs. Wild May 04 $69 +$32 +47%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Mammoth vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $63 +$15 +23%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins Apr 26 $62 +$10 +16%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars Apr 23 $52 +$13 +25%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Avalanche vs. Kings Apr 23 $83 +$9 +10%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $72 +$8 +12%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 20 $62 +$9 +15%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 19 $69 −$68 -99%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 07 $74 +$8 +11%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 29 $68 +$11 +16%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $75 +$13 +17%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $72 +$5 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Alexa Grasso vs. Maycee Barber (Women's Flyweight, Ma Mar 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $77 +$5 +6%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $62 +$5 +8%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $57 +$18 +31%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 28 $82 +$13 +16%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 27 $72 +$10 +14%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 27 $78 +$6 +7%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 26 $79 +$6 +7%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 26 $54 +$11 +20%
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 23 $87 +$13 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $74 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $76 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $577 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 75¢ $744 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $617 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $597 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $83 15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $72 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 16d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 16d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 16d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $2 17d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 17d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 17d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 18d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 18d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 18d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 18d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 18d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 18d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 18d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 18d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $69 18d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 18d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 18d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 18d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 18d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.49 · official $142.49 (match) · 1284 history records