Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

79
0x7948…4b4a
weather · 1280 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$64 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses160 / 1047
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions73
Markets (closed)1207 / 1280
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day123.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 73 History 1207 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$54
14 days+$24
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+304%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 18¢ 42¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+136%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Yes 12¢ 36¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 35¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+192%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+97%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 13? Yes 13¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Yes 11¢ 27¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+145%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+70%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+108%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +524%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $0 +$4 +2100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +638%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $0 $0 -74%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $0 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 +$4 +479%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $0 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +577%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$9 +2075%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +1143%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on June Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on June Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$38
sports 4% −$12
other 3% −$13
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL Yes 80¢ $4 40m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 44m
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL Yes 93¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 4¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 +3.1% -6.8% 13% 13% +19.1%
≤30d 1207 -25.7% -32.8% 13% 12% -17.7%
≤90d 1207 -25.7% -32.8% 13% 12% -17.7%
all 1207 -25.7% -32.8% 13% 12% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover123.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 12% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 12% -25.6%
15% -45.1% 11% -32.8%
20% -50.5% 11% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.24 · official $33.24 (match) · 3500 history records