Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x794c…0238 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$309 (+19%) realized +$308 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$82
crypto 32% +$64
other 31% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +20.0% +8.5% 56% 56% +4.6%
≤30d 48 +20.0% +8.5% 56% 56% +4.6%
≤90d 48 +20.0% +8.5% 56% 56% +4.6%
all 48 +20.0% +8.5% 56% 56% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 56% +4.6%
10% -1.9% 56% -5.4%
15% -11.3% 50% -14.5%
20% -20.0% 38% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$308
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage4d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 22¢ 22¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$12 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$26 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$27 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$8 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $64 −$44 -69%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$37 -73%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $58 +$41 +70%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $35 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$8 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$19 -62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$12 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$13 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 +$58 +188%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $31 +$66 +216%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $129 +$53 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$29 +96%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 14 $65 −$33 -51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$11 -35%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $31 +$51 +166%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$4 -12%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $30 +$30 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$29 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$49 +425%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$30 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 22¢ $31 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $22 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $47 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $27 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $19 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 18¢ $20 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $64 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 13h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $58 15h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $27 17h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $35 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $27 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $19 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.68 · official $41.59 · 102 history records