Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x794d…53c8 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,988 (+5%) realized +$7,191 · open −$2,203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,706per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$3,797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$939
sports 4% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.0% -18.6% 45% 45% -1.3%
≤30d 15 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 47% -6.5%
≤90d 15 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 47% -6.5%
all 15 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 47% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 47% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 47% -15.4%
15% -29.5% 40% -23.6%
20% -36.4% 27% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,350 vs −$2,518 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3,797
Realized+$7,191
Unrealized−$2,203
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6,706
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 24¢ $6,000 $3,797 −$2,203 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $3,050 −$205 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,019 +$1,021 +100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $11,810 +$5,148 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $764 −$728 -95%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5,057 −$5,000 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,158 −$430 -14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $6,586 −$2,936 -45%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,530 +$367 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7,069 +$3,378 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5,079 −$3,524 -69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12,831 +$7,960 +62%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,379 +$4,472 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,757 −$3,519 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26,072 −$3,804 -15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,022 +$1,103 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 43¢ $0 1m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 42¢ $2,845 1m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,056 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,055 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $3,050 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 78¢ $2,040 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $11,810 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $36 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $764 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $5,057 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 39¢ $1,367 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,526 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $1,897 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,530 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $2,628 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $2,542 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $2,283 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $2,024 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $3,036 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $7,069 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,555 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5,079 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $12,831 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4,335 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,044 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $3,239 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5,128 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,796.70 · official $3,796.70 (match) · 56 history records