Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
79 0x794e…70af sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$861 (+8%) realized +$861 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$763per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$835
tech 15% +$2
crypto 9% +$1
politics 9% +$2
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +11.7% +1.0% 100% 18% -1.3%
all 14 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 14% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 14% -2.8%
10% -10.2% 14% -12.1%
15% -18.9% 14% -20.6%
20% -26.8% 7% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized+$861
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage104d
Avg bet$763
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $128 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $67 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $255 +$187 +73%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $254 $0 +0%
Will gemini-3-flash have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? Apr 11 $1,572 +$2 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $1,064 +$508 +48%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $1,062 +$1 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $1,046 +$16 +2%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 02 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Wizards vs. Lakers Mar 31 $994 +$51 +5%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 31 $993 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 26? Mar 29 $992 +$1 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 23 $990 +$2 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $921 +$69 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $128 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $60 30d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $255 35d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 47d
Will gemini-3-flash have the best AI model on April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,572 82d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 67¢ $1,064 85d
Celtics vs. Bucks BUY Celtics 100¢ $1,062 85d
Timberwolves vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 98¢ $1,046 86d
Pacers vs. Bulls BUY Pacers 100¢ $1,045 87d
Wizards vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 95¢ $994 89d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 100¢ $993 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $992 96d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen BUY No 100¢ $990 101d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 93¢ $921 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.74 · official $127.74 (match) · 30 history records