Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7951…71fe other 45 markets active 5d ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-19%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$4
crypto 25% −$4
world 11% −$2
politics 8% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 4% −$2
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 31% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 31% -9.9%
≤90d 34 -19.8% -27.4% 56% 24% -33.2%
all 43 -13.2% -21.5% 65% 28% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 28% -26.9%
10% -29.0% 14% -33.9%
15% -35.8% 12% -40.3%
20% -42.1% 7% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage189d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clavicular sentenced to prison? No 89¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 62¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 08 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 27 $3 $0 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Mar 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 27 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 27 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 27 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 21? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 27? Mar 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 27? Mar 17 $1 $0 +2%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 17 $1 $0 +22%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 17 $1 $0 +28%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Jan 18 $1 $0 +6%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 18 $1 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Jan 18 $1 $0 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 18 $1 $0 +12%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 18 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 5d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 79¢ $1 38d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? BUY No 89¢ $1 38d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? SELL No 88¢ $1 38d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 41d
Clavicular sentenced to prison? BUY No 87¢ $1 41d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 83¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 82d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 92¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 82d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL Yes 99¢ $1 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 82d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 82d
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 82d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $1 82d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1 82d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.23 · official $1.23 (match) · 81 history records