Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
79 0x7954…8a14 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-16%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$37
sports 22% −$21
world 8% −$7
crypto 5% +$19
culture 3% −$13
tech 3% −$5
politics 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤30d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
≤90d 1 +26.6% +14.5% 100% 100% +14.5%
all 58 -34.6% -40.8% 36% 29% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.8% 29% -27.3%
10% -46.5% 28% -34.2%
15% -51.6% 24% -40.6%
20% -56.4% 17% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage566d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Nov 18 $15 −$5 -34%
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pacers (-2.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Gaethje vs. Fiziev Mar 09 $3 +$4 +133%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Lily Phillips breaks record for sex in one day? Mar 01 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $10 +$10 +108%
TikTok on App Store again before February? Feb 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 21 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during victory rally? Jan 20 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during victory rally? Jan 20 $8 +$12 +147%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-01-18? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31? Jan 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-01-14? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jan 07 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-01-04? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Thunder Jan 06 $9 +$10 +112%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bournemouth vs. Everton end in a draw? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $1 $0 +35%
Will Southampton win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $1 $0 +41%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-04? Jan 04 $3 +$2 +89%
Hornets vs. Pistons Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Jan 04 $3 +$4 +121%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Jan 04 $3 +$4 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 19m
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $51 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 79¢ $50 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 216d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $14 216d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 216d
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua? BUY Paul 14¢ $2 221d
Aspinall vs. Gane BUY Aspinall 76¢ $15 245d
Spread: Pacers (-2.5) BUY Pacers 2¢ $1 369d
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 415d
Lakers vs. Mavericks BUY Lakers 66¢ $10 443d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 447d
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 447d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 468d
Will George Russell win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 468d
Gaethje vs. Fiziev BUY Gaethje 43¢ $3 475d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 480d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 480d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 481d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 483d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 483d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 483d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 483d
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 489d
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 489d
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 489d
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 489d
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 491d
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 492d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.65 · official $69.65 (match) · 139 history records