Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

79 0x7957…18cf crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$97 (-11%) realized −$98 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate56%10W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$46per market

Trades / day56.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-18.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-10.0%	-18.5%	56%	39%	-20.3%
≤30d	18	-10.0%	-18.5%	56%	39%	-20.3%
≤90d	18	-10.0%	-18.5%	56%	39%	-20.3%
all	18	-10.0%	-18.5%	56%	39%	-20.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover56.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-18.5%	39%	-20.3%
10% ← realistic here	-26.3%	39%	-28.0%
15%	-33.5%	33%	-34.9%
20%	-40.0%	11%	-41.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -27% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$19 vs −$37 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.66 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$31

Realized−$98

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses10 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$46

Trades / day56.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	98¢	100¢	$30	$31	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$63	+240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 18	$78	−$78	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 18	$78	−$27	-34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 18	$52	+$24	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 18	$53	+$15	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 18	$51	+$23	+45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 18	$32	−$32	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 18	$56	+$23	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 18	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 18	$25	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 18	$40	−$40	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Jun 18	$102	+$10	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 18	$55	+$2	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Jun 18	$36	+$17	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 18	$53	−$36	-68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 18	$26	+$15	+60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 18	$51	−$51	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$25	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$26	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$4	46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$26	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$26	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$26	56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$26	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Up	43¢	$2	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Up	47¢	$20	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	27¢	$30	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	22¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Down	45¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Up	93¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$79	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.66 · official $30.65 (match) · 69 history records