trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-7%) |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | T1 | 28¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET | Up | 3¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | Jun 12 | $6 | −$4 | -62% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET | May 25 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | May 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 20 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? | May 20 | $2 | −$1 | -37% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET | May 20 | $5 | −$1 | -15% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | May 18 | $5 | −$3 | -63% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 | May 16 | $10 | +$16 | +158% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -62.2% | -65.8% | 0% | 0% | -65.8% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 25% | 12% | -5.5% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 25% | 12% | -5.5% |
| all | 8 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 25% | 12% | -5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.5% | 12% | -5.5% |
| 10% | -39.9% | 12% | -14.6% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 12% | -22.8% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 12% | -30.4% |