Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
79 0x795a…6554 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 21% +$1
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% +$1
tech 2% $0
sports 1% +$2
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 43% 0% -9.6%
all 47 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage459d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 69¢ 69¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 −$3 -14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $73 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $73 +$2 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $34 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 30 $10 $0 -1%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $8 $0 -6%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 28 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 25 $9 +$2 +17%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? Apr 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 21 $9 $0 +4%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 19 $1 $0 +11%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $12 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11? Apr 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.30 on March 21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $27 2h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $27 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $14 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $20 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $25 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $33 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $7 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $5 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $8 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 19¢ $15 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $39 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $39 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $16 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $14 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.12 · official $32.88 (match) · 159 history records