Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x795b…9066 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,277 (+16%) realized +$1,277 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$1,038
crypto 19% −$282
other 9% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -33.3% -39.7% 26% 24% -0.7%
≤30d 38 -33.3% -39.7% 26% 24% -0.7%
≤90d 38 -33.3% -39.7% 26% 24% -0.7%
all 38 -33.3% -39.7% 26% 24% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.7% 24% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -45.5% 24% -10.2%
15% -50.7% 24% -18.8%
20% -55.6% 21% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$299 vs −$79 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,277
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $242 −$20 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$173 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$182 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $172 −$168 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $68 −$65 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$27 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $46 +$110 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$20 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $255 +$480 +188%
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $257 −$252 -98%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4,103 −$700 -17%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $250 −$160 -64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,381 +$1,929 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $144 −$142 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$3 -18%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $172 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $68 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $65 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $46 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records