Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
79 0x795d…63e7 other 375 markets active 0h ago coverage 515d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Covers last 514d only
Total PnL +$5,036 (+4%) realized +$4,534 · open +$502
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%159W / 185L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$345per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$4,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$240
14 days+$4,343
30 days+$4,270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$4,030
other 32% +$4,861
culture 9% −$1,986
politics 5% −$696
tech 1% −$345
world 0% +$264
economics 0% −$29
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +84.7% +67.1% 100% 100% +70.3%
≤30d 7 +211.4% +181.7% 57% 57% +283.5%
≤90d 48 -34.2% -40.4% 23% 15% +8.2%
all 344 +33.3% +20.6% 46% 32% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 32% -5.5%
10% +9.1% 26% -14.5%
15% -1.5% 24% -22.8%
20% -11.1% 21% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$61 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$4,129
Realized+$4,534
Unrealized+$502
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses159 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions31
Markets (closed)344 / 375
History coverage515d ⚠
Avg bet$345
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 34¢ 72¢ $420 $897 +$477 (+114%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 83¢ 80¢ $830 $805 −$25 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $409 $401 −$8 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $385 $389 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 100¢ $145 $164 +$19 (+13%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 7¢ 15¢ $75 $150 +$75 (+100%)
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027? No 76¢ 95¢ $110 $137 +$27 (+25%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 36¢ 36¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 54¢ $135 $134 −$1 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match? No 29¢ 28¢ $113 $110 −$3 (-3%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match? No 52¢ 52¢ $86 $88 +$1 (+2%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+21%)
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $72 +$17 (+32%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA World Cup Match? No 43¢ 43¢ $66 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the South Africa vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 40¢ 61¢ $39 $60 +$21 (+54%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA World Cup Match? No 36¢ 36¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? No 37¢ 42¢ $34 $39 +$5 (+15%)
2026 NBA Draft: Any Team to Trade into Top 10? No 92¢ 50¢ $70 $38 −$32 (-45%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? No 30¢ 32¢ $35 $37 +$1 (+4%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 5¢ 5¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+7%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? No 23¢ 22¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Will the announcers say "Los Angeles" 5+ times during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World Cup Match? No 0¢ 40¢ $0 $24 +$24 (+0%)
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $76 $13 −$63 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $216 +$196 +91%
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $56 +$44 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $128 −$61 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $225 +$3,350 +1487%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $684 +$815 +119%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Cedric Coward win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Apr 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded this season? Apr 20 $85 −$67 -79%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year? Apr 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Apr 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA se Apr 20 $118 −$111 -94%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season Apr 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in Apr 20 $181 −$159 -88%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 20 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Caleb Williams win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Apr 20 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $49 −$49 -100%
No Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX? Apr 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Big Game: 'Seahawks Revenge' Parlay Apr 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ja Morant be traded this season? Apr 20 $75 −$55 -74%
Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025– Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jayson Tatum play a game this season? Apr 20 $133 +$10 +7%
Will LaMelo Ball be traded this season? Apr 20 $40 −$32 -80%
Big Game: 'NE Dynasty' Parlay Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Apr 20 $333 −$328 -98%
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season? Apr 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks? Apr 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Will there be 11-13 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Apr 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA s Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lamar Jackson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Apr 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Josh Allen win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Dem Apr 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be clear/water? Apr 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will there be 9-11 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jonathan Taylor win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season game Apr 20 $32 +$18 +58%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season? Apr 20 $105 +$3 +3%
Stefon Diggs suspended this season? Apr 20 $105 +$16 +15%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 20 $134 +$66 +49%
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 20 $1,042 +$73 +7%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 18 $14 +$86 +614%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 18 $126 +$124 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Los Angeles" 5+ times during the Turkiye vs U BUY No 43¢ $26 2m
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World C BUY No 23¢ $27 5m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the South Africa vs South Kor SELL Yes 64¢ $10 5m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the South Africa vs South Kor SELL Yes 64¢ $13 5m
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World BUY No 29¢ $116 6m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $64 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $135 10m
2026 NBA Draft: Any Team to Trade into Top 10? BUY No 92¢ $70 21m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 28m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the South Africa vs South Kor BUY Yes 40¢ $55 40m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W SELL No 44¢ $0 40m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W SELL No 43¢ $17 45m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World SELL No 45¢ $9 45m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Ecuador vs Germany FIFA W BUY No 43¢ $86 46m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 36¢ $6 58m
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA Wo BUY No 52¢ $88 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl SELL No 37¢ $20 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl BUY No 36¢ $161 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W SELL No 33¢ $12 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF SELL No 37¢ $17 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIF BUY No 36¢ $55 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W BUY No 31¢ $35 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA W BUY No 30¢ $12 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Turkiye vs USA FIFA World BUY No 37¢ $42 1h
Will Kyle Schwarber win the 2026 National League MVP Award? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 80¢ $61 5d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 6d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 6d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 6d
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 52¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,128.51 · official $4,128.58 (match) · 3500 history records