Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x795d…5687 other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,590 (+1%) realized +$1,588 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 114L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$866per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$31
politics 34% −$34
sports 12% +$1,604
world 3% +$55
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 +2.1% -7.6% 6% 2% -7.8%
all 144 +2.2% -7.5% 21% 12% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 12% -8.4%
10% -16.3% 11% -17.1%
15% -24.4% 9% -25.2%
20% -31.8% 8% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,130) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$4 · ×17.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$870
Realized+$1,588
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)144 / 146
History coverage164d
Avg bet$866
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $667 $669 +$2 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $201 $201 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,360 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $283 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 12 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,667 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $3,629 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,670 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,030 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,230 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $273 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $460 +$1 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $368 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,220 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,626 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $3,392 −$4 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,130 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $5,143 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,511 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,076 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1,484 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 09 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $2,203 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $695 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 07 $1,288 +$1,395 +108%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $2,217 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $2,312 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 49m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 3h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $268 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $269 6h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 24h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $256 27h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $316 7d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $316 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $282 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $283 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $268 7d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $268 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $495 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $496 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $667 11d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $892 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $893 13d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $974 13d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $975 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,038 14d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,039 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,050 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,052 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $855 15d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $856 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,110 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,112 16d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $677 20d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $678 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.83 · official $869.83 (match) · 447 history records