Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x795e…7768 crypto 714 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,060 (-6%) realized −$1,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%443W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$30
14 days−$109
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$871
weather 1% −$14
sports 0% +$1
other 0% −$1
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +3.9% -6.0% 73% 42% -10.2%
≤30d 203 -1.6% -11.0% 70% 40% -12.4%
≤90d 710 -1.7% -11.0% 62% 30% -14.2%
all 710 -1.7% -11.0% 62% 30% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 30% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 17% -22.4%
15% -27.3% 10% -29.9%
20% -34.4% 4% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$1,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses443 / 267
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)710 / 714
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 710 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 80¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $72 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $71 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$10 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $12 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $137 −$128 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $33 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $82 −$28 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $73 −$33 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$5 +25%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $87 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $118 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$13 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $112 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $73 +$41 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $92 −$9 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$27 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$7 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 80¢ $1 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 95¢ $1 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 95¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.09 · official $4.09 · 3500 history records