Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
79 0x795f…e297 other 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$132 (+26%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$98
other 25% +$47
crypto 4% −$11
world 2% +$8
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 42% +18.0%
≤30d 38 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 42% +18.0%
≤90d 38 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 42% +18.0%
all 38 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 42% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 42% +18.0%
10% -21.1% 39% +6.7%
15% -28.7% 32% -3.6%
20% -35.7% 26% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$16 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $29 +$9 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $32 +$2 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $29 +$3 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$5 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $77 +$14 +18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 +$43 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 +$11 +39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$29 +403%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$29 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 7m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $14 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 19h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $10 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $29 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $5 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $35 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $32 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $32 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $29 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $10 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 33h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $77 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $77 44h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $35 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.76 · official $19.76 (match) · 66 history records