Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
79 0x7960…fe2a sports 1447 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,340 (-2%) realized −$2,336 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate69%992W / 454L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days+$141
14 days−$337
30 days−$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,281
other 43% −$596
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 31% -7.1%
≤30d 316 -3.7% -12.9% 63% 33% -12.8%
≤90d 1008 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 31% -11.4%
all 1446 -3.1% -12.3% 69% 30% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 30% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 15% -19.9%
15% -28.4% 7% -27.7%
20% -35.4% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$21 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$2,336
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses992 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1446 / 1447
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$92
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $248 $243 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $245 +$3 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $486 +$138 +28%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $226 +$19 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $185 +$130 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $234 −$49 -21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $168 +$92 +55%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $135 +$33 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $121 +$13 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $127 −$6 -5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $190 −$62 -33%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$23 -92%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $225 +$7 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $152 +$53 +35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 −$37 -80%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $59 −$59 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $106 +$13 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $220 −$113 -52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$10 -20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $224 +$8 +4%
Will CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $242 +$12 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $229 +$13 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $211 +$1 +0%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$3 -25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $231 +$17 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $229 +$2 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $219 +$11 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $248 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $248 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $245 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $245 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $379 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $241 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $226 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 29h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 44h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $185 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 62¢ $185 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $234 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $168 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $24 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $25 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $25 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $35 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $135 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $121 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $127 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $128 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $190 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.50 · official $243.50 (match) · 3500 history records